Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
27 Gonzaga 100.0%   10   25 - 7 15 - 3 25 - 7 15 - 3 +13.5      +8.4 25 +5.1 49 68.7 210 +12.3 32 +11.1 1
39 St. Mary's 74.9%   11   26 - 5 15 - 3 26 - 5 15 - 3 +10.9      +8.9 19 +2.0 117 57.7 348 +11.5 40 +11.0 2
50 BYU 0.8%   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +10.3      +5.5 52 +4.9 54 83.1 8 +7.1 85 +7.5 3
129 Pepperdine 0.0%   17 - 13 10 - 8 17 - 13 10 - 8 +2.4      +1.2 145 +1.2 142 69.1 194 +3.1 123 +2.5 4
202 San Francisco 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 10 14 - 15 8 - 10 -2.6      +1.5 133 -4.1 282 75.1 67 -1.6 189 -0.2 5
203 Portland 0.0%   11 - 20 6 - 12 11 - 20 6 - 12 -2.8      +0.7 154 -3.5 270 79.4 22 -4.6 232 -3.6 9
208 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   13 - 17 6 - 12 13 - 17 6 - 12 -3.1      -0.5 183 -2.6 240 68.7 212 -1.8 190 -3.6 8
218 Pacific 0.0%   6 - 20 6 - 12 6 - 20 6 - 12 -3.5      -2.7 238 -0.8 191 66.5 266 -6.9 271 -3.5 7
232 Santa Clara 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 11 10 - 20 7 - 11 -4.3      -1.6 207 -2.8 249 65.5 288 -4.2 229 -1.7 6
263 San Diego 0.0%   8 - 21 4 - 14 8 - 21 4 - 14 -6.3      -7.3 325 +1.0 146 65.8 282 -6.1 256 -6.8 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
BYU 3.0 100.0
Pepperdine 4.0 100.0
San Francisco 5.0 100.0
Portland 7.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 7.0 100.0
Pacific 7.0 100.0
Santa Clara 6.0 100.0
San Diego 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 15 - 3 100.0
St. Mary's 15 - 3 100.0
BYU 13 - 5 100.0
Pepperdine 10 - 8 100.0
San Francisco 8 - 10 100.0
Portland 6 - 12 100.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 100.0
Pacific 6 - 12 100.0
Santa Clara 7 - 11 100.0
San Diego 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
BYU
Pepperdine
San Francisco
Portland
Loyola Marymount
Pacific
Santa Clara
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10   0.0 2.0 7.4 17.6 37.3 34.8 0.8
St. Mary's 74.9% 0.0% 74.9% 11   0.4 2.9 10.7 29.0 31.6 0.4 25.1 74.9%
BYU 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.8%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 54.5% 19.0% 7.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
St. Mary's 74.9% 25.0% 63.2% 28.2% 7.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
BYU 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 24.8 74.6 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 36.6 63.2 0.2
2nd Round 67.7% 0.8 32.3 52.6 15.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 25.0% 0.3 75.0 23.5 1.5
Elite Eight 10.1% 0.1 89.9 10.0 0.2
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4 0.0
Final Game 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4